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Bailey Properties, Inc

Important data for metropolitan areas of San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont.

By Economist Danielle Hale

For the third year in a row, NAR Research has looked at the equity a homeowner might have in a home owned for 5, 10, 15, and 20 years if it were purchased at the median price. This analysis allows us to learn about the effect of price patterns in many metro areas on homeowner equity over longer periods of time. Examining longer periods of time is important because typical buyers expect to own their home for 7 to 15 years, depending on the buyer’s age. Among all buyers, the typical expected time of ownership is 10 years. This is the first year that the effect of falling house prices has shown up in our look at equity in a wide-spread manner at the 5 year time frame. Still, over a 10 year period, the typical expected time of ownership, the equity situation for our experimental buyers is much more sanguine.

Equity and Wealth

Homeowner equity is a substantial component of homeowner wealth. The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted once every three years, provides a snapshot of family income and net worth along with basic demographic details and more detailed information on where families keep the wealth they have accumulated. The most recent survey, concluded in 2007, offers a picture of the situation before home price declines and the tumbling equities market hit household balance sheets. At that time, median homeowners had well over $200,000 in net worth compared to median renters who had just over $5,000. Furthermore, $200,000 was the median value of owners’ homes. In the research paper accompanying the survey results, Fed researchers conducted a thought experiment to determine how market declines might have impacted the mean and median households through October 2008.

Looking at aggregate data, the National Association of Realtors® estimated the impact for renter and homeowner households through calendar year 2008. The result, shown below in Figure 1, suggests that despite declines in equity and housing markets, homeowners ended 2008 with a net worth orders of magnitude greater than renters. How has the recovery of the stock market and a sluggish housing market affected owners and renters? For the first time ever, the Federal Reserve resurveyed the 2007 participants in 2009 to directly measure how the crisis and recession affected their finances. These results are expected in late 2010.

National Association of Realtors® Research, Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2009